Major Banks’ Ratings | Morgan Stanley: Pop Mart’s Q3 Sales Growth Far Exceeds Expectations, Upgrades Profit and Revenue Forecasts

Gelonghui, October 23rd | Morgan Stanley issued a research report stating that Pop Mart’s sales growth in the third quarter surged by 245% to 250%, significantly surpassing the firm’s forecast of 180% and further accelerating from approximately 235% growth in the second quarter. By region, Greater China recorded growth of 185% to 190%, while overseas markets grew by 365% to 370%. Specifically, the Asia-Pacific region expanded by 170% to 175%, the Americas by 1265% to 1270%, and Europe by 735% to 740%, with all markets growing faster than expected. Incorporating the third-quarter results, Morgan Stanley raised its earnings forecasts, projecting net profit growth of 291%, 25%, and 21% year-on-year for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Revenue forecasts were increased by 5% to 8%, reflecting growth rates of 190%, 26%, and 20%, respectively. The adjusted net profit margin is projected to reach 32.4%, 32.1%, and 32.1%. The target price was maintained at HKD 382, with a rating of “Overweight”.