The bank believes that future product sales growth will be further driven by the release of new products, such as those tied to Christmas.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Postal Securities issued a research report stating that Pop Mart (09992), as the leading company in China’s trendy toy industry, possesses strong capabilities in IP acquisition, incubation, and operation. The brokerage maintains a positive outlook on the company’s medium- to long-term value. The brokerage forecasts revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 at 172%, 38%, and 36% respectively (all upwardly revised), with net profit growth rates at 251%, 42%, and 39% respectively (all upwardly revised). EPS is projected to be RMB 8.16, 11.59, and 16.16 per share, with the current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 26x, 18x, and 13x respectively. The brokerage reiterates its “Buy” rating for the company.
Full-year Outlook: Peak Season Approaching, Positive Prospects
Q4 represents Pop Mart’s traditional peak sales season, with Halloween, Black Friday, and Christmas approaching. Overseas markets, primarily in Europe and the U.S., are expected to witness robust demand for gifts and trendy toys. Early October saw strong blind sales of Pop Mart’s Halloween-themed new product, the “Why So Serious” series of搪胶 plush keychains. The brokerage believes that the release of subsequent Christmas-themed products will further drive sales growth.
Medium to Long Term: Continuous Experimentation with New Businesses, Comprehensive Platform Gradually Advancing
Over more than a decade of development, POP MART has built a comprehensive operating platform covering the entire trendy toy industry chain, focusing on five areas: global artist discovery, IP incubation and operation, consumer engagement, promotion of trendy toy culture, and incubation and investment in innovative businesses. In 2024, the company introduced accessories and building block products; in 2025, it launched magazines, doll clothing, and K-gold products. Recently, the company introduced pure gold products, gradually advancing its all-encompassing platform strategy.
Company Outlook: International Expansion + New Product Ramp-Up, Growth Momentum Continues
1) Overseas Expansion: According to the company’s plans, 2025 will see continued increases in the proportion of overseas business, with a focus on signing stores in core landmark cities and improving store quality. Key attention will be given to the U.S. and European markets, along with expanding landmark stores and tourist attraction sales channels. Regarding new businesses, domestic successes such as live streaming will be extended overseas. English-language live streaming will be managed domestically, while non-English streams will be operated locally. By 2025, live streaming is expected to account for over 20% of overseas e-commerce. On cost control, regional warehouses will be established in Southeast Asia and Europe, expected to reduce costs by 50% and improve replenishment efficiency.
2) Innovation: The company remains committed to an IP-centric group strategy and will continue to introduce new product categories while exercising restraint in SKU numbers under the principle of ‘less is more.’ The absolute number of SKUs in 2025 is projected to not exceed that of 2024. Mature categories will strictly control quantities, while new categories will undergo initial trials followed by reductions to maintain a streamlined portfolio.
3) Future: According to the company’s plan, by 2025 the company aims to open 100 stores overseas, with overseas revenue expected to account for more than 50%. The North American market is projected to reach the sales level of the Chinese market in 2020. The company intends to establish regional warehouses in Southeast Asia and Europe, which will effectively reduce operating costs and is expected to drive a continuous increase in the company’s net profit margin.